As fallout from the US subprime failure lingers in the worlds equity markets, M&A in the global investment management sector in 2008 will shift, with alternative managers accounting for a record proportion of deals, according to Jefferies Putnam Lovell, the division of Jefferies Group, Inc. focused on the asset management and financial technology industries.
Overall action in 2008 will be vibrant, but will likely not match 2007 peaks set for transaction value and number of deals, according to All Shook Up, a Jefferies Putnam Lovell review of M&A and capital markets activity in the global asset management and financial technology industries.
Pricing for alternative managers will remain firm, even amid slumping equity markets. With at least seven new Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) currently targeting the financial sector, asset managers will have access to public capital this year, but this years supply of traditional IPOs may fall short of the year-earlier total. Private equity shops remain enthusiastic about asset management, but will be more restrained bidders as financing costs rise.
“Unstable markets will persuade traditional and alternative managers to unite and create broader product capabilities and sources of revenue. When markets recover, investment managers will emerge as even more formidable competitors within the financial sector,” says Ben Phillips, managing director and head of strategic analysis at Jefferies Putnam Lovell and author of the report.
Buyers of asset management firms committed $51.2 billion in 241 transactions globally in 2007, according to New York-based Jefferies Putnam Lovell, 16% above the prior year by disclosed deal value, and almost 26% higher than the 191 deals announced in 2006. Even excluding the record 11 initial public offerings by fund management companies in 2007, the trade sale total equaled $43 billion, eclipsing the year-earlier $42 billion.
Among the trends Jefferies Putnam Lovell expects to unfold during the next 12 months are:
Transaction activity, driven by the secular demand for higher-growth alternative investments, will be solid. Nevertheless, a large group of prospective sellers will elect to wait for sunnier markets, and resurrected record profits, before returning to the auction block.
Buyout firms will continue to shop aggressively in the asset management and financial technology aisles by offering equity-heavy deals.
Financial technology firms will continue to attract attention from strategic buyers, as exchanges gird themselves for conflict with alternative trading venues, custodians look for the differentiating edge, and buy-side firms seek further methods of out-trading a subprime-ravaged sell-side.
Alternative asset managers will account for a record proportion of deals in 2008. Long-only players will step up their search for short skills. Alternative firms, looking to dampen the revenue volatility from performance fees, will seek more asset-based fees to improve earnings quality.
Public markets will remain a viable source of liquidity for asset managers. As asset management becomes a more clearly defined, understood and independent sector within financial services, its higher-value attributes will shine through. Multiples paid for quoted fund managers globally will rebound with a broad market.
Cross-border transaction activity will continue to drive a growing portion of deal activity. Asias long-term promise remains bright, and US asset managers must fulfill their customers voracious demand for international securities.