The UK economy will reach pre-financial crisis levels of GDP growth by July 2013, according to SWIFTs Global Index Data.
Utilizing customer payments messaging data with validated methodology, the SWIFT Index forecasts a year-on-year UK growth rate of 0.9% during the first quarter and 1.6% during the second quarter, after three consecutive quarters of contraction in 2012. Since its launch in March 2012, the Index, based on up to 2 million daily SWIFT payments messages, has successfully predicted OECD GDP growth with limited deviation.
As announced in October 2012, the launch of four new national SWIFT Indices (SWIFT Index UK, Germany, US and EU27) completes SWIFTs Business Intelligence portfolio, which provides indicators of national and regional GDP growth.
The current value of the Global SWIFT Index stands at 161.95, and data from January highlights a slight contraction compared to December. The year-on-year (YoY) OECD growth rate forecast remains reasonable at around 1.6% during Q1-2013, and represents a noticeable improvement on the previous quarters estimate of 1.2%.
The SWIFT Index forecasts the following growth rates in OECD economies:- 1.6% growth in Q1 2013 compared to Q1 2012 (a nowcast for the current quarter)- 1.7% growth for Q2 2013 compared to Q2 2012 (a forecast).
The observed payments volumes for the EU27 indicate a slight recovery, with the economic bloc moving out of recession into a positive GDP growth rate, from -0.6% in Q4 2012 to 0.0% in Q1 2013 and 0.2% in Q2 2013. The US GDP growth rate is improving, moving from 1.5% in Q4 2012 to 1.9% in Q1 2013, before growing slightly to 2.1% Q2 2013. For Germany, the GDP growth rate should remain stable; maintain a slightly positive value of 0.4% in Q4-2012 across Q1 and Q2 2013.
(JDC)