Payrolls have plunged and the unemployment rate has surged in the last few months, but jobless claims are signaling even more weakness in February, according to analysts from UBS.
UBS forecasts a 700k decline in payrolls and a 0.4 point rise in the unemployment rate. For comparison, the decline in payrolls averaged 591,000 per month in November, December, and January; the rise in the unemployment rate averaged 0.3 point.
Jobless claims rose 31k to 639k in the week of 28 February after a 39k rise the prior week. Through the volatility, claims have been trending up–including another increase in the four-week average in the latest week to 642k from 640k.
L.D.