Thomson Financial, an operating unit of The Thomson Corporation says that money managers surveyed by Thomson Financial had high expectations for gains in the S&P over the next year. Almost two-thirds of the 93 money managers polled by Thomson through mid-September, said they saw the S&P higher in one year.
“The mixed attitudes toward bonds could be possibly attributed to the fact that US monetary policy is perceived as being currently on hold, the Treasury yield curve is trading at negative carry, and while inflation remains historically low, it stubbornly remains FOMC comfort levels,” says Michael Thompson, the Director of Research for Thomson Financial.
The majority of fund managers surveyed were net bearish on the US dollar vs. other major currencies: 59.6 percent were slightly negative USD, 33.9 percent were neutral, 3.6 percent slightly positive, 2.9 percent very positive. At the same time, they were overwhelmingly negative on the US housing market six months out (58.7 percent slightly negative, 25.8 percent very negative), and remained so one year from today (51.3 percent slightly negative, 21.6 percent very negative). Near-term expectations for higher interest rates are expected to remain problematic for US housing.
They were more optimistic when it came to business spending. The managers said business spending should continue to contribute to economic growth, with 82.7 percent neutral to positive six months out, and 81 percent neutral/positive a year from now.