SWIFT Sees Strong Growth for U.K. and U.S. in Q1 2014

SWIFT continues to paint an optimistic picture on the growth of the U.K. and U.S. economies.
By Janet Du Chenne(59204)
SWIFT continues to paint an optimistic picture on the growth of the U.K. and U.S. economies.

Based on an average of two million SWIFT payments messages per day, the SWIFT Index produces quarterly GDP growth nowcasts and forecasts for the UK, EU27, Germany, US and OECD economies

One year on from its inception, the SWIFT Index continues to forecast improvement in the UK economy, with an anticipated year-on-year GDP growth rate of 2.6% by Q1 2014.

Despite a shaky October with the US economy at risk of a default, the SWIFT Index predicts further economic expansion for the US in the New Year with a 2.2% year-on-year GDP growth rate expected by Q1 2014.

The SWIFT Index continues to be optimistic for EU27 growth, forecasting a steady climb out of recession in Q1 2014 with a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 0.9% anticipated – higher than current expectations for Q4 2013.

Similarly, the German economy should continue its steady recovery from 0.6% in Q3 2013 to 1.6% year-on-year growth by Q1 2014.

Underpinning the combined regional growth, the OECD region continues to grow at a strong year-on-year GDP growth rate, reaching 1.5% by Q1 2014.

“Since launching the SWIFT Index in October 2012, we have seen a great deal of success, particularly in forecasts for UK and US economic recovery, post financial crisis. This proves to us that our methodology, which uses an algorithm based on SWIFT payments volumes and OECD data, is accurate and is an early barometer for GDP growth”, said Andre Boico, head of Pricing & Analytics, SWIFT. “As we move into the New Year, the future is bright for the UK and US economies, with the global economy not far behind.”

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