Research and Markets states that emerging markets and developed countries of the Asia-Pacific appear to be well placed to deal with the crisis. The same is for commercial banks in the various countries of the Middle East and North Africa. In Latin America, Chile, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia appear better placed than Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador. The survey includes 59 countries.
South Africa’s situation appears to have much in common with that of Brazil: by contrast, Nigeria faces some of the same challenges as those that confront Venezuela. The positions of most countries in Central and Eastern Europe, however, are alarming.
In Colombia the median growth in assets in local currency terms was 21.3%. In India median loan growth was 21.6%. In Brazil median growth in deposits was 17.9%.
Research and Markets also investigated size and recent movement in the loan/deposit ratio, macro-economic developments and recent movements in financial markets. Two general themes pervade the banking sectors of the Asia-Pacific region:
The first is that the excess savings within Greater China and Japan remain enormous and are likely to grow. One expression of this will be the continuing growth in bank deposits that is, in absolute terms, considerably greater than the growth in lending. The second is that central banks have, in much of the region, been moving to tighten monetary policy.
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating (CBBER) from Research and Markets reflects assessments of overall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment. Hong Kong’s overall CBBER is 81.6. The market structure element of the limits to potential returns is roughly comparable to the country element (79.4 versus 78.9). However, the market risks element of the risks to the realisation of returns scores more highly than the country risks of the realisation of potential returns (96.7 versus 80.9).
L.D.