Stagflation fears are gripping investors, but inflation concerns are fast overtaking worries about economic growth, according to Merrill Lynch’s Survey of Fund Managers for May.
Fund managers were slightly less negative in their expectations for economic growth and corporate earnings. Particularly striking was that fewer panellists believe the world has already entered recession 18% took that view in May, down from 24% in April. The number expecting recession within a year fell to 29% from 40%.
Instead, investors are focusing on inflation. A quarter of respondents expect global core inflation to rise in the coming 12 months, compared with just 7% in April. This is prompting predictions of higher bonds yields, with 80 percent of investors expecting long-term rates to be higher a year from now. In contrast, fewer respondents are predicting higher short-term rates.
“Evidence is pointing to a possible sell-off in bonds as inflation worries mount. A sharp rise in bond yields could help convert this financial crisis into an economic crisis,” says David Bowers, independent consultant to Merrill Lynch.
Despite expressing a lower risk of recession, the panel still worries that earnings estimates are detached from reality. More than three quarters of investors said, in response to a new question, that consensus estimates for global corporate earnings are too high.
Moreover, fewer investors see value in equities. The number of investors who believe that equities are undervalued fell to a net 15% in May, which is down from a net 26% in April. Fears of overvaluation are also apparent in commodities. In response to new questions, a net 52% of asset allocators said that they thought oil is overvalued, and a net 29% of asset allocators thought gold to be trading above fundamentals.
Fuelled by growing inflation fears, Eurozone investors have rediscovered their enthusiasm for the commodity trade. Oil and Gas, seen as inflation-proof, has extended its position as Europe’s favourite sector with 41% of investors overweight, compared with 29% in April. Oil & Gas and Basic Resources benefit from one of the few clear growth stories.
“In a slowdown, earnings momentum drives out-performance not value. The relentless need for food and infrastructure in developing markets means that commodities, and not labour, are the scarce resources in this cycle, and this scarcity means pricing power. Banks, on the contrary, are being penalised for earnings decay. While still unloved, this month they are no longer seen as cheap as they move from value-trap, implying upside, to trap status,” says Karen Olney, chief European equities strategist, Merrill Lynch.
One month ago, nearly a quarter of Eurozone and UK investors said banks were undervalued, and that number has now fallen to zero.
The threat of stagflation is also bad news for company pension plans. Indexation means a rising cash-call at a time when profits are moderating for many. Developments in the UK are being watched closely.
“Investors might not appreciate that the UK Pensions Regulator has the power to ensure pension contributions rank ahead of dividends. As of April 14, these powers have been strengthened,” says Olney.
Investors should be paying close attention to the unfolding story of the extent to which higher inflation translates to higher pension fund payments for corporates. They should monitor the investment strategy that plan sponsors are using. The gap in performance between those corporate pension plan sponsors using and not using LDI could increase markedly as stagflation takes hold.
“Plan sponsors using LDI have the advantage of a hedge against higher inflation and sharp changes in interest rates. Those pension plans that remain unhedged leave themselves at the whim of the market,” says Gordon Latter, Pensions and Endowments Strategist, Merrill Lynch.
A total of 191 fund managers participated in the global survey from 2 May to 8 May, managing a total of $615 billion. A total of 179 managers participated in the regional surveys, managing $413 billion. The survey was conducted with the help of market research company Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS). Survey results were analysed by David Bowers, who is joint managing director of Absolute Strategy Research Ltd, a financial services consultancy.